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Trusting Judgements: How to Get the Best Out of Experts

Mark A. Burgman (Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne)
Format
Book
Published
Cambridge, United Kingdom : Cambridge University Press, 2016.
Language
English
ISBN
9781107112087, 1107112087, 9781107531024, 1107531020
Related Resources
Cover image
Summary
"Policy- and decision-makers in government and industry constantly face important decisions without full knowledge of all the facts. They rely routinely on expert advice to fill critical scientific knowledge gaps. There are unprecedented opportunities for experts to influence decisions. Yet even the most experienced can be over-confident and error-prone, and the hidden risk is that scientists and other experts can over-reach, often with good intentions, placing more weight on the evidence they provide than is warranted. This book describes how to identify potentially risky advice, explains why group judgements outperform individual estimates, and provides an accessible and up-to-date guide to the science of expert judgement. Finally, and importantly, it outlines a simple, practical framework that will help policy- and decision-makers to ensure that the advice that they receive is relatively reliable and accurate, thus substantially improving the quality of information on which critical decisions are made"--
Contents
  • 1. What's wrong with consulting experts?
  • 2. Kinds of uncertainty
  • 3. What leads experts astray?
  • 4. Dealing with individual experts
  • 5. The wisdom of crowds revisited
  • 6. Tips to get the best out of experts.
Description
ix, 203 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm
Notes
Includes bibliographical references (pages 176-200) and index.
Technical Details
  • Access in Virgo Classic
  • Staff View

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    a| Cambridge, United Kingdom : b| Cambridge University Press, c| 2016.
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    a| ix, 203 pages : b| illustrations ; c| 24 cm
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    a| Government consultants.
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    a| JF1525 .C6 B87 2016 w| LC i| X031734674 l| STACKS m| ALDERMAN t| BOOK
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