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Expert Adjustments of Model Forecasts: Theory, Practice and Strategies for Improvement

Philip Hans Franses
Format
Book
Published
Cambridge, United Kingdom : Cambridge University Press, 2014.
Language
English
ISBN
9781107081598, 1107081599, 9781107441613, 1107441617
Related Resources
Cover image
Summary
"To what extent should anybody who has to make model forecasts generated from detailed data analysis adjust their forecasts based on their own intuition? In this book, Philip Hans Franses, one of Europe's leading econometricians, presents the notion that many publicly available forecasts have experienced an 'expert's touch', and questions whether this type of intervention is useful and if a lighter adjustment would be more beneficial. Covering an extensive research area, this accessible book brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment from an econometric perspective. The author's analysis is based on a range of real forecasts and the datasets upon which the forecasters relied. The various motivations behind experts' modifications are considered, and guidelines for creating more useful and reliable adjusted forecasts are suggested. This book will appeal to academics and practitioners with an interest in forecasting methodology"--
"This monograph aims to collect recent theoretical insights and various empirical results for a rapidly developing area concerning the analysis of business and economic forecasts. Strictly following econometric textbooks one would be tempted to assume that forecasts are the outcome of a careful modeling exercise and that the econometric model builder delivers the forecast to an end user"--
Contents
  • Preface
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Optimal behaviour of experts
  • 3. Observed behaviour of experts
  • 4. How accurate are expert-adjusted forecasts?
  • 5. How can forecasts be improved?
  • 6. Conclusion, limitations and implications
  • Data appendix.
Description
xvi, 127 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm
Notes
Includes bibliographical references (pages 119-125) and index.
Technical Details
  • Access in Virgo Classic
  • Staff View

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    520
      
      
    a| "This monograph aims to collect recent theoretical insights and various empirical results for a rapidly developing area concerning the analysis of business and economic forecasts. Strictly following econometric textbooks one would be tempted to assume that forecasts are the outcome of a careful modeling exercise and that the econometric model builder delivers the forecast to an end user"-- c| Provided by publisher.
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