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Crashes, Crises, and Calamities: How We Can Use Science to Read the Early-Warning Signs

Len Fisher
Format
Book
Published
New York : Basic Books, c2011.
Language
English
ISBN
9780465021024 (hardback), 0465021026 (hardback)
Summary
Drawing on ecology and biology, math and physics, the author offers four fundamental tools that scientists and engineers use to forecast the likelihood of sudden change: stability, catastrophe, complexity, and game theories.
Contents
  • Pt. 1. A potted pre-history of prognostication. Do animals have crystal balls?
  • The future eclipsed
  • Galileo's hell
  • Pt. 2. How disasters happen. The stress of it all
  • Runaway disaster
  • The balance of nature and the nature of balance
  • Pt. 3. Imminent catastrophes : reading the signs. The chaotic ecology of dragons
  • Teetering on the brink of catastrophe
  • Models and supermodels
  • Beware of mathematicians
  • Weak signals as major early-warning signs
  • Summary : The future of forecasting.
Description
xviii, 233 p. : ill. ; 22 cm.
Notes
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Technical Details
  • Access in Virgo Classic
  • Staff View

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    a| Pt. 1. A potted pre-history of prognostication. Do animals have crystal balls? -- The future eclipsed -- Galileo's hell -- Pt. 2. How disasters happen. The stress of it all -- Runaway disaster -- The balance of nature and the nature of balance -- Pt. 3. Imminent catastrophes : reading the signs. The chaotic ecology of dragons -- Teetering on the brink of catastrophe -- Models and supermodels -- Beware of mathematicians -- Weak signals as major early-warning signs -- Summary : The future of forecasting.
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