Item Details

Guidelines for Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis

[prepared for] Center for Chemical Process Safety of the American Institute of Chemical Engineers
Format
Book
Published
New York : The Center, c2000.
Edition
2nd ed
Language
English
ISBN
081690720X
Contents
  • 1.1. CPQRA Definitions 5
  • 1.2. Component Techniques of CPQRA 7
  • 1.2.1. Complete CPQRA Procedure 7
  • 1.2.2. Prioritized CPQRA Procedure 13
  • 1.3. Scope of CPQRA Studies 15
  • 1.3.1. Study Cube 15
  • 1.3.2. Typical Goals of CPQRAS 18
  • 1.4. Management of Incident Lists 19
  • 1.4.1. Enumeration 20
  • 1.4.2. Selection 24
  • 1.4.3. Tracking 29
  • 1.5. Applications of CPQRA 29
  • 1.5.1. Screening Techniques 30
  • 1.5.2. Applications within Existing Facilities 32
  • 1.5.3. Applications within New Projects 32
  • 1.6. Limitations of CPQRA 33
  • 1.7. Current Practices 36
  • 1.8. Utilization of CPQRA Results 38
  • 1.9. Project Management 38
  • 1.9.3. Depth of Study 41
  • 1.9.4. Special User Requirements 44
  • 1.9.5. Construction of a Project Plan 44
  • 1.9.6. Project Execution 50
  • 1.10. Maintenance of Study Results 50
  • 2 Consequence Analysis
  • 2.1. Source Models 59
  • 2.1.1. Discharge Rate Models 60
  • 2.1.2. Flash and Evaporation 95
  • 2.1.3. Dispersion Models 111
  • 2.2. Explosions and Fires 153
  • 2.2.1. Vapor Cloud Explosions (VCE) 157
  • 2.2.2. Flash Fires 180
  • 2.2.3. Physical Explosion 181
  • 2.2.4. Bleve and Fireball 204
  • 2.2.5. Confined Explosions 217
  • 2.2.6. Pool Fires 224
  • 2.2.7. Jet Fires 237
  • 2.3. Effect Models 244
  • 2.3.1. Toxic Gas Effects 250
  • 2.3.2. Thermal Effects 267
  • 2.3.3. Explosion Effects 274
  • 2.4. Evasive Actions 277
  • 2.5. Modeling Systems 283
  • 3 Event Probability and Failure Frequency Analysis
  • 3.1. Incident Frequencies from the Historical Record 297
  • 3.2. Frequency Modeling Techniques 304
  • 3.2.1. Fault Tree Analysis 304
  • 3.2.2. Event Tree Analysis 322
  • 3.3. Complementary Plant-Modeling Techniques 330
  • 3.3.1. Common Cause Failure Analysis 331
  • 3.3.2. Human Reliability Analysis 368
  • 3.3.3. External Events Analysis 379
  • 4 Measurement, Calculation, and Presentation of Risk Estimates
  • 4.1. Risk Measures 395
  • 4.1.1. Risk Indices 396
  • 4.1.2. Individual Risk 397
  • 4.1.3. Societal Risk 399
  • 4.1.4. Injury Risk Measures 399
  • 4.2. Risk Presentation 400
  • 4.2.1. Risk Indices 401
  • 4.2.2. Individual Risk 402
  • 4.2.3. Societal Risk 403
  • 4.3. Selection of Risk Measures and Presentation Format 406
  • 4.3.1. Selection of Risk Measures 406
  • 4.3.2. Selection of Presentation Format 407
  • 4.4. Risk Calculations 408
  • 4.4.1. Individual Risk 408
  • 4.4.2. Societal Risk 418
  • 4.4.3. Risk Indices 423
  • 4.4.5. Example Risk Calculation Problem 425
  • 4.4.6. Sample Problem Illustrating That F-N Curves Cannot Be Calculated from Individual Risk Contours 438
  • 4.5. Risk Uncertainty, Sensitivity, and Importance 442
  • 4.5.1. Uncertainty 442
  • 4.5.2. Sensitivity 450
  • 4.5.3. Importance 451
  • 5 Creation of CPQRA Data Base
  • 5.1 Historical Incident Data 459
  • 5.1.1. Types of Data 459
  • 5.2. Process and Plant Data 464
  • 5.2.1. Plant Layout and System Description 464
  • 5.2.2. Ignition Sources and Data 464
  • 5.3. Chemical Data 468
  • 5.3.1. Types of Data 468
  • 5.4. Environmental Data 469
  • 5.4.1. Population Data 469
  • 5.4.2. Meteorological Data 471
  • 5.4.3. Geographic Data 472
  • 5.4.4. Topographic Data 473
  • 5.4.5. External Event Data 473
  • 5.5. Equipment Reliability Data 475
  • 5.5.2. Types and Sources of Failure Rate Data 485
  • 5.5.3. Key Factors Influencing Equipment Failure Rates 490
  • 5.5.4. Failure Rate Adjustment Factors 497
  • 5.5.5. Data Requirements and Estimated Accuracy 499
  • 5.5.6. Collection and Processing of Raw Plant Data 499
  • 5.5.7. Preparation of the CPQRA Equipment Failure Rate Data Set 508
  • 5.6. Human Reliability Data 515
  • 5.7. Use of Expert Opinions 518
  • 6 Special Topics and Other Techniques
  • 6.1. Domino Effects 525
  • 6.2. Unavailability Analysis of Protective Systems 529
  • 6.3. Reliability Analysis of Programmable Electronic Systems 537
  • 6.4. Other Techniques 549
  • 6.4.1. MORT Analysis 550
  • 6.4.2. IFAL Analysis 550
  • 6.4.3. Hazard Warning Structure 550
  • 6.4.4. Markov Processes 551
  • 6.4.5. Monte Carlo Techniques 559
  • 6.4.6. GO Methods 559
  • 6.4.7. Reliability Block Diagrams 560
  • 6.4.8. Cause-Consequence Analysis 560
  • 6.4.9. Multiple Failure/Error Analysis (MFEA) 561
  • 6.4.10. Sneak Analysis 563
  • 7 CPQRA Application Examples
  • 7.1. Simple/Consequence CPQRA Examples 573
  • 7.1.1. Simple/Consequence CPQRA Characterization 573
  • 7.1.2. Application to a New Process Unit 574
  • 7.1.3. Application to an Existing Process Unit 575
  • 7.2. Intermediate/Frequency CPQRA Examples 575
  • 7.2.1. Intermediate/Frequency CPQRA Characterization 575
  • 7.2.2. Application to a New Process Unit 576
  • 7.2.3. Application to an Existing Process Unit 577
  • 7.3. Complex/Risk CPQRA Examples 577
  • 7.3.1. Complex/Risk Cpqra Characterization 577
  • 7.3.2. Application to a New or Existing Process Unit 578
  • 8.1. Chlorine Rail Tank Car Loading Facility 580
  • 8.1.3. Identification, Enumeration, and Selection of Incidents 583
  • 8.1.4. Incident Consequence Estimation 587
  • 8.1.5. Incident Frequency Estimation 593
  • 8.1.6. Risk Estimation 596
  • 8.2. Distillation Column 605
  • 8.2.3. Identification, Enumeration, and Selection of Incidents 609
  • 8.2.4. Incident Consequence Estimation 612
  • 8.2.5. Incident Frequency Estimation 619
  • 8.2.6. Risk Estimation 625
  • 9 Future Developments
  • 9.1. Hazard Identification 636
  • 9.2. Source and Dispersion Models 636
  • 9.2.1. Source Emission Models 636
  • 9.2.2. Transport and Dispersion Models 637
  • 9.2.3. Transient Plume Behavior 637
  • 9.2.4. Concentration Fluctuations and the Time Averaging of Dispersion Plumes 637
  • 9.2.5. Input Data Uncertainties and Model Validation 638
  • 9.2.6. Field Experiments 638
  • 9.2.7. Model Evaluation 638
  • 9.3. Consequence Models 639
  • 9.3.1. Unconfined Vapor Cloud Explosions (UVCE) 639
  • 9.3.2. Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosions (BLEVES) and Fireballs 640
  • 9.3.3. Pool and Jet Fires 640
  • 9.3.4. Toxic Hazards 640
  • 9.3.5. Human Exposure Models 641
  • 9.4. Frequency Models 642
  • 9.4.1. Human Factors 642
  • 9.4.2. Electronic Systems 642
  • 9.4.3. Failure Rate Data 644
  • 9.5. Hazard Mitigation 645
  • 9.6. Uncertainty Management 645
  • 9.7. Integration of Reliability Analysis, CPQRA, and Cost-Benefit Studies 646
  • Appendix A Loss-of-Containment Causes in the Chemical Industry 649
  • Appendix B Training Programs 653
  • Appendix C Sample Outline for CPQRA Reports 659
  • Appendix D Minimal Cut Set Analysis 661
  • Appendix E Approximation Methods for Quantifying Fault Trees 671
  • Appendix F Probability Distributions, Parameters, and Terminology 689
  • Appendix G Statistical Distributions Available for Use as Failure Rate Models 695
  • Appendix H Errors from Assuming That Time-Related Equipment Failure Rates Are Constant 705
  • Appendix I Data Reduction Techniques: Distribution Identification and Testing Methods 709
  • Appendix J Procedure for Combining Available Generic and Plant-Specific Data 717.
Description
xxviii, 754 p. : ill. ; 26 cm. + 1 computer optical disc (4 3/4 in.)
Notes
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Technical Details
  • Access in Virgo Classic

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    a| Guidelines for chemical process quantitative risk analysis / c| [prepared for] Center for Chemical Process Safety of the American Institute of Chemical Engineers.
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    a| 2nd ed.
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    a| New York : b| The Center, c| c2000.
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    g| 1.1. t| CPQRA Definitions g| 5 -- g| 1.2. t| Component Techniques of CPQRA g| 7 -- g| 1.2.1. t| Complete CPQRA Procedure g| 7 -- g| 1.2.2. t| Prioritized CPQRA Procedure g| 13 -- g| 1.3. t| Scope of CPQRA Studies g| 15 -- g| 1.3.1. t| Study Cube g| 15 -- g| 1.3.2. t| Typical Goals of CPQRAS g| 18 -- g| 1.4. t| Management of Incident Lists g| 19 -- g| 1.4.1. t| Enumeration g| 20 -- g| 1.4.2. t| Selection g| 24 -- g| 1.4.3. t| Tracking g| 29 -- g| 1.5. t| Applications of CPQRA g| 29 -- g| 1.5.1. t| Screening Techniques g| 30 -- g| 1.5.2. t| Applications within Existing Facilities g| 32 -- g| 1.5.3. t| Applications within New Projects g| 32 -- g| 1.6. t| Limitations of CPQRA g| 33 -- g| 1.7. t| Current Practices g| 36 -- g| 1.8. t| Utilization of CPQRA Results g| 38 -- g| 1.9. t| Project Management g| 38 -- g| 1.9.3. t| Depth of Study g| 41 -- g| 1.9.4. t| Special User Requirements g| 44 -- g| 1.9.5. t| Construction of a Project Plan g| 44 -- g| 1.9.6. t| Project Execution g| 50 -- g| 1.10. t| Maintenance of Study Results g| 50 -- g| 2 t| Consequence Analysis -- g| 2.1. t| Source Models g| 59 -- g| 2.1.1. t| Discharge Rate Models g| 60 -- g| 2.1.2. t| Flash and Evaporation g| 95 -- g| 2.1.3. t| Dispersion Models g| 111 -- g| 2.2. t| Explosions and Fires g| 153 -- g| 2.2.1. t| Vapor Cloud Explosions (VCE) g| 157 -- g| 2.2.2. t| Flash Fires g| 180 -- g| 2.2.3. t| Physical Explosion g| 181 -- g| 2.2.4. t| Bleve and Fireball g| 204 -- g| 2.2.5. t| Confined Explosions g| 217 -- g| 2.2.6. t| Pool Fires g| 224 -- g| 2.2.7. t| Jet Fires g| 237 -- g| 2.3. t| Effect Models g| 244 -- g| 2.3.1. t| Toxic Gas Effects g| 250 -- g| 2.3.2. t| Thermal Effects g| 267 -- g| 2.3.3. t| Explosion Effects g| 274 -- g| 2.4. t| Evasive Actions g| 277 -- g| 2.5. t| Modeling Systems g| 283 -- g| 3 t| Event Probability and Failure Frequency Analysis -- g| 3.1. t| Incident Frequencies from the Historical Record g| 297 -- g| 3.2. t| Frequency Modeling Techniques g| 304 -- g| 3.2.1. t| Fault Tree Analysis g| 304 -- g| 3.2.2. t| Event Tree Analysis g| 322 -- g| 3.3. t| Complementary Plant-Modeling Techniques g| 330 -- g| 3.3.1. t| Common Cause Failure Analysis g| 331 -- g| 3.3.2. t| Human Reliability Analysis g| 368 -- g| 3.3.3. t| External Events Analysis g| 379 -- g| 4 t| Measurement, Calculation, and Presentation of Risk Estimates -- g| 4.1. t| Risk Measures g| 395 -- g| 4.1.1. t| Risk Indices g| 396 -- g| 4.1.2. t| Individual Risk g| 397 -- g| 4.1.3. t| Societal Risk g| 399 -- g| 4.1.4. t| Injury Risk Measures g| 399 -- g| 4.2. t| Risk Presentation g| 400 -- g| 4.2.1. t| Risk Indices g| 401 -- g| 4.2.2. t| Individual Risk g| 402 -- g| 4.2.3. t| Societal Risk g| 403 -- g| 4.3. t| Selection of Risk Measures and Presentation Format g| 406 -- g| 4.3.1. t| Selection of Risk Measures g| 406 -- g| 4.3.2. t| Selection of Presentation Format g| 407 -- g| 4.4. t| Risk Calculations g| 408 -- g| 4.4.1. t| Individual Risk g| 408 -- g| 4.4.2. t| Societal Risk g| 418 -- g| 4.4.3. t| Risk Indices g| 423 -- g| 4.4.5. t| Example Risk Calculation Problem g| 425 -- g| 4.4.6. t| Sample Problem Illustrating That F-N Curves Cannot Be Calculated from Individual Risk Contours g| 438 -- g| 4.5. t| Risk Uncertainty, Sensitivity, and Importance g| 442 -- g| 4.5.1. t| Uncertainty g| 442 -- g| 4.5.2. t| Sensitivity g| 450 -- g| 4.5.3. t| Importance g| 451 -- g| 5 t| Creation of CPQRA Data Base -- g| 5.1 t| Historical Incident Data g| 459 -- g| 5.1.1. t| Types of Data g| 459 -- g| 5.2. t| Process and Plant Data g| 464 -- g| 5.2.1. t| Plant Layout and System Description g| 464 -- g| 5.2.2. t| Ignition Sources and Data g| 464 -- g| 5.3. t| Chemical Data g| 468 -- g| 5.3.1. t| Types of Data g| 468 -- g| 5.4. t| Environmental Data g| 469 -- g| 5.4.1. t| Population Data g| 469 -- g| 5.4.2. t| Meteorological Data g| 471 -- g| 5.4.3. t| Geographic Data g| 472 -- g| 5.4.4. t| Topographic Data g| 473 -- g| 5.4.5. t| External Event Data g| 473 -- g| 5.5. t| Equipment Reliability Data g| 475 -- g| 5.5.2. t| Types and Sources of Failure Rate Data g| 485 -- g| 5.5.3. t| Key Factors Influencing Equipment Failure Rates g| 490 -- g| 5.5.4. t| Failure Rate Adjustment Factors g| 497 -- g| 5.5.5. t| Data Requirements and Estimated Accuracy g| 499 -- g| 5.5.6. t| Collection and Processing of Raw Plant Data g| 499 -- g| 5.5.7. t| Preparation of the CPQRA Equipment Failure Rate Data Set g| 508 -- g| 5.6. t| Human Reliability Data g| 515 -- g| 5.7. t| Use of Expert Opinions g| 518 -- g| 6 t| Special Topics and Other Techniques -- g| 6.1. t| Domino Effects g| 525 -- g| 6.2. t| Unavailability Analysis of Protective Systems g| 529 -- g| 6.3. t| Reliability Analysis of Programmable Electronic Systems g| 537 -- g| 6.4. t| Other Techniques g| 549 -- g| 6.4.1. t| MORT Analysis g| 550 -- g| 6.4.2. t| IFAL Analysis g| 550 -- g| 6.4.3. t| Hazard Warning Structure g| 550 -- g| 6.4.4. t| Markov Processes g| 551 -- g| 6.4.5. t| Monte Carlo Techniques g| 559 -- g| 6.4.6. t| GO Methods g| 559 -- g| 6.4.7. t| Reliability Block Diagrams g| 560 -- g| 6.4.8. t| Cause-Consequence Analysis g| 560 -- g| 6.4.9. t| Multiple Failure/Error Analysis (MFEA) g| 561 -- g| 6.4.10. t| Sneak Analysis g| 563 -- g| 7 t| CPQRA Application Examples -- g| 7.1. t| Simple/Consequence CPQRA Examples g| 573 -- g| 7.1.1. t| Simple/Consequence CPQRA Characterization g| 573 -- g| 7.1.2. t| Application to a New Process Unit g| 574 -- g| 7.1.3. t| Application to an Existing Process Unit g| 575 -- g| 7.2. t| Intermediate/Frequency CPQRA Examples g| 575 -- g| 7.2.1. t| Intermediate/Frequency CPQRA Characterization g| 575 -- g| 7.2.2. t| Application to a New Process Unit g| 576 -- g| 7.2.3. t| Application to an Existing Process Unit g| 577 -- g| 7.3. t| Complex/Risk CPQRA Examples g| 577 -- g| 7.3.1. t| Complex/Risk Cpqra Characterization g| 577 -- g| 7.3.2. t| Application to a New or Existing Process Unit g| 578 -- g| 8.1. t| Chlorine Rail Tank Car Loading Facility g| 580 -- g| 8.1.3. t| Identification, Enumeration, and Selection of Incidents g| 583 -- g| 8.1.4. t| Incident Consequence Estimation g| 587 -- g| 8.1.5. t| Incident Frequency Estimation g| 593 -- g| 8.1.6. t| Risk Estimation g| 596 -- g| 8.2. t| Distillation Column g| 605 -- g| 8.2.3. t| Identification, Enumeration, and Selection of Incidents g| 609 -- g| 8.2.4. t| Incident Consequence Estimation g| 612 -- g| 8.2.5. t| Incident Frequency Estimation g| 619 -- g| 8.2.6. t| Risk Estimation g| 625 -- g| 9 t| Future Developments -- g| 9.1. t| Hazard Identification g| 636 -- g| 9.2. t| Source and Dispersion Models g| 636 -- g| 9.2.1. t| Source Emission Models g| 636 -- g| 9.2.2. t| Transport and Dispersion Models g| 637 -- g| 9.2.3. t| Transient Plume Behavior g| 637 -- g| 9.2.4. t| Concentration Fluctuations and the Time Averaging of Dispersion Plumes g| 637 -- g| 9.2.5. t| Input Data Uncertainties and Model Validation g| 638 -- g| 9.2.6. t| Field Experiments g| 638 -- g| 9.2.7. t| Model Evaluation g| 638 -- g| 9.3. t| Consequence Models g| 639 -- g| 9.3.1. t| Unconfined Vapor Cloud Explosions (UVCE) g| 639 -- g| 9.3.2. t| Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosions (BLEVES) and Fireballs g| 640 -- g| 9.3.3. t| Pool and Jet Fires g| 640 -- g| 9.3.4. t| Toxic Hazards g| 640 -- g| 9.3.5. t| Human Exposure Models g| 641 -- g| 9.4. t| Frequency Models g| 642 -- g| 9.4.1. t| Human Factors g| 642 -- g| 9.4.2. t| Electronic Systems g| 642 -- g| 9.4.3. t| Failure Rate Data g| 644 -- g| 9.5. t| Hazard Mitigation g| 645 -- g| 9.6. t| Uncertainty Management g| 645 -- g| 9.7. t| Integration of Reliability Analysis, CPQRA, and Cost-Benefit Studies g| 646 -- g| Appendix A t| Loss-of-Containment Causes in the Chemical Industry g| 649 -- g| Appendix B t| Training Programs g| 653 -- g| Appendix C t| Sample Outline for CPQRA Reports g| 659 -- g| Appendix D t| Minimal Cut Set Analysis g| 661 -- g| Appendix E t| Approximation Methods for Quantifying Fault Trees g| 671 -- g| Appendix F t| Probability Distributions, Parameters, and Terminology g| 689 -- g| Appendix G t| Statistical Distributions Available for Use as Failure Rate Models g| 695 -- g| Appendix H t| Errors from Assuming That Time-Related Equipment Failure Rates Are Constant g| 705 -- g| Appendix I t| Data Reduction Techniques: Distribution Identification and Testing Methods g| 709 -- g| Appendix J t| Procedure for Combining Available Generic and Plant-Specific Data g| 717.
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    a| Chemical plants x| Risk assessment v| Handbooks, manuals, etc.
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    a| American Institute of Chemical Engineers. b| Center for Chemical Process Safety.
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    a| TP155.5 .G76 2000 w| LC i| X004527204 l| STACKS m| SCI-ENG t| BOOK

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