Item Details

Print View

Scenario-Based Preferences in Risk Analysis and Systems Engineering: Evolution Through Time Frames

Hamilton, Michelle
Format
Thesis/Dissertation; Online
Author
Hamilton, Michelle
Advisor
Lambert, James
Abstract
Priority-setting in large-scale systems involves uncertainties across multiple, competing aims that span technology, climate, economy, regulatory, socio-economic, ecology, and other dimensions. Recent literature has advocated scenario-based preferences in multicriteria analysis to seek robust initiatives across scenarios of epistemic or deep uncertainty (Stewart et al. 2013; Goodwin and Wright 2001; Montibeller et al. 2006 and Parnell 1999). Schroeder and Lambert (2011) adopted scenario-based preferences for risk analysis, identifying combinations of risk factors that are influential to priority setting. Previous analyses fall short of addressing evolving initiatives, criteria, and uncertainties. The scenario-based approach should be implemented as a process that provides continuity of analyses across past, present, and future time frames. This dissertation describes a process for iterative framing of scenario-based preferences for risk analysis in systems engineering, updating criteria, alternatives, and emergent factors. The process is demonstrated in several case studies: (i) selecting energy technologies for islanding of fixed military installations, and (ii) selecting research and development initiatives for climate-change resilience of coastal facilities. The approach is generally applicable for risk analysis and systems engineering that addresses emergent and future conditions for the government, military, and industry.
Language
English
Published
University of Virginia, Department of Systems Engineering, PHD (Doctor of Philosophy), 2014
Published Date
2014-04-14
Degree
PHD (Doctor of Philosophy)
Collection
Libra ETD Repository
In CopyrightIn Copyright
▾See more
▴See less

Availability

Read Online