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International Bond Markets and the Intro of the Euro [electronic resource]

Clemens J.M. Kool
Format
Computer Resource; Online
Published
Ann Arbor, Mich. Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor] 2001
Edition
2001-04-02
Series
ICPSR
ICPSR (Series)
Access Restriction
AVAILABLE. This study is freely available to the general public.
Abstract
In this article, the author analyzes the future prospects of the euro as an international currency from a portfolio perspective. Using daily bond and exchange-rate data during the period 1996-1998, the author constructs an optimal benchmark portfolio for representative investors from the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the three major European countries participating in the euro: France, Germany, and Italy. Subsequently, the author distinguishes three plausible (euro) exchange-rate scenarios and three plausible (European) bond market scenarios as a result of the introduction of the euro. Then, the portfolio optimization is implemented again under the nine scenarios. Generally, the outcomes suggest that an increase in net demand for euro assets is unlikely, due to the inherent reduction of attractive diversification possibilities. For a given eurobond supply, this in turn implies a depreciation of the euro. Potential entry of the United Kingdom into the euro area is not seen to change the results. However, increasing depth and liquidity of European bond markets, together with lower transaction costs, may reverse the conclusions. Finally, the author shows that both actual supply and demand developments in international bond markets in 1999 are consistent with the observed depreciation of the euro relative to the United States dollar.Cf: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01228.v1
Contents
Dataset
Description
Mode of access: Intranet.
Notes
Title from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2016-02-11.
Series Statement
ICPSR 1228
ICPSR (Series) 1228
Other Forms
Also available as downloadable files.
Copyright Not EvaluatedCopyright Not Evaluated
Technical Details
  • Staff View

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    a| In this article, the author analyzes the future prospects of the euro as an international currency from a portfolio perspective. Using daily bond and exchange-rate data during the period 1996-1998, the author constructs an optimal benchmark portfolio for representative investors from the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the three major European countries participating in the euro: France, Germany, and Italy. Subsequently, the author distinguishes three plausible (euro) exchange-rate scenarios and three plausible (European) bond market scenarios as a result of the introduction of the euro. Then, the portfolio optimization is implemented again under the nine scenarios. Generally, the outcomes suggest that an increase in net demand for euro assets is unlikely, due to the inherent reduction of attractive diversification possibilities. For a given eurobond supply, this in turn implies a depreciation of the euro. Potential entry of the United Kingdom into the euro area is not seen to change the results. However, increasing depth and liquidity of European bond markets, together with lower transaction costs, may reverse the conclusions. Finally, the author shows that both actual supply and demand developments in international bond markets in 1999 are consistent with the observed depreciation of the euro relative to the United States dollar.Cf: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01228.v1
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